Third-party logistics (3PLs) companies are set for a boost this Black Friday after new research suggests that order volumes could jump by nearly a fifth.
Figures reveal that consumers could spend £10.3bn in total this year, an estimated increase of 18.6% compared to last year.
The research from order fulfilment software specialist Mintsoft also reveals consumers placed more than 2.5m online orders during Black Friday last year – up by 675,804 compared to 2023.
Cyber Monday was the busiest day last Black Friday, with around 450,000 customer orders dispatched, according to Mintsoft’s data.
The annual Black Friday shopping extravaganza, which falls on 28 November in 2025, is prime time for people to secure slashed-price electricals before Christmas, while cosmetics, fitness and fashion are among the hottest product categories on TikTok Shop.
Rebecca Kane, Managing Director of CK Fulfilment and homeware company Silver Mushroom, said:
“We now focus on smarter forecasting, closer client communication, and stronger carrier partnerships. Our warehouse management system helps us allocate stock, track orders in real time, and set clear delivery cut-offs, which keeps expectations realistic and service consistent. Combined with flexible staffing and proactive communication, this allows us to scale quickly and minimise risk during peak demand.
“The key is collaboration and transparency. We work closely with carriers and suppliers to share forecasts early, agree realistic cut-offs, and build contingency into peak planning. Real-time system integrations mean everyone has visibility of stock and inventory, which helps manage expectations and avoids surprises – resulting in a smoother experience for the client and the end customer.”
Clare Bottle, CEO of the UK Warehousing Association, said:
“Black Friday isn’t just about a single day, it has evolved into a sustained surge in demand that can stretch across several weeks. This creates pressure on operations, which is intensified by high customer expectations.
“We’ve seen firms adapt to these challenges well – using data analytics to better forecast demand, automating their processes and improving customer communications, as well as staggering promotions across November to spread the load.
“Retailers need to work closely with their supply chain partners by sharing early forecasts and planning contingency in warehousing and transport, as well as with carriers to balance volumes. Strong and long-term relationships, rather than transactional ones, provide trust and flexibility to manage these seasonal spikes.
“Every year, our sector demonstrates its resilience and critical role in the modern economy and 2025 will be no different. Above all, look out for each other – Black Friday can be tough!”
Beth Chapman, founder and MD of Hounslow-based logistics company Starlinks Global, said the logistics industry had already experienced significant disruption this year – largely due to turbulence in the US, the world’s biggest ecommerce market.
“If peak season is a test of Black Friday readiness, 2025 has already been the ultimate rehearsal,” she said.
“That experience reinforced that resilience is not just about capacity, it is about adaptability. Retailers need carrier partners who can move quickly and precisely when conditions shift, whether through new tariffs, strikes, extreme weather, or the surge of peak volumes
“Black Friday will always test capacity, but this year it will also test agility. The carriers that have already proven they can weather disruption while maintaining strong service levels will be the ones retailers can rely on when it matters most.”
To read the full research click here.
Methodology
Mintsoft analysed sales and order data from over 550 ecommerce and 3PL companies that use its platform to calculate Black Friday spending and growth. Taking an estimated average rise across the last few years, the figures were contrasted with previous industry reports from the likes of Barclaycard, PWC and Nationwide to reach the £10 billion total.
About Mintsoft
Mintsoft is cloud-based order fulfilment software, which works with over 700 small and mid-sized online and multi-channel sellers, warehouses and 3PLs (third-party logistics) companies.
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