Times may be tough in the economy, but forecasts of meltdown are well wide of the mark. That’s the gist of BITA’s new members-only Economic Forecast, unveiled at BITA’s 2008 AGM on 9 May. Here James Clark, Secretary-General of BITA (the British Industrial Truck Association) reveals some of highlights from the report.
The world has changed a great deal since industrial trucks first came to prominence (and the seeds for BITA were sown) during World War Two and the post-war reconstruction period. Since that time there have been innumerable technological and technical advances, not to mention economic ups and downs. Today we find ourselves in a period of profound and unprecedented economic uncertainty, occasioned not only by the so-called ‘credit crunch’ but also the surging price of oil. And while BITA cannot influence the dynamics of global business, it can take steps to help its members make the best possible business decisions. Those steps arrived at their destination on 9 May 2008, when at BITA’s 23rd AGM we announced our new Economi Forecasting service for BITA members.
Taking the form of a 30-page ‘Forklift Market’ report, distributed to BITA members at the AGM, the new service examines likely short- and medium-term developments in the industrial truck market based on observed trends and predictions for the global economy as a whole.
The economic forecast has been provided by Oxford Economics, whose high-quality quantitative analysis and practical, evidence-based advice already helps businesses, governments and international organisations make confident decisions about tactics, strategy and policy.
BITA’s exclusive new economic forecast will complement its existing and unique provision of UK industrial truck sales statistics, which are contributed by – and only made available to – members of BITA’s Truck Suppliers Group and Components & Services Group.
Forecasting the future
Naturally, developments in the forklift market are a central theme of the new economic forecast. Here Oxford Economics predicts a 3% downturn of orders in 2008, stability in 2009 from 2008, and a subsequent increase of approximately 3.5% year on year, in terms of units, until 2012.
However, what’s also valuable is the report’s provision of a ‘bigger picture’ overview of the wider UK and global economy, as well as analyses of specific sectors, such as Distribution and Transport Services. Drawing upon its own analyses, Oxford Economics sketches a detailed picture of UK and World Macroeconomic indices.
In the UK, it believes a sharp slowdown in growth is inevitable, but also suggests a recession is highly unlikely; instead, it anticipates a prolonged period of sub-trend growth. Households’ financial positions are very different from the early 1990s when interest rates reached 15% and unemployment was rising sharply. And, despite sharp increases in energy and food prices, the Bank of England has much more scope to cut interest rates if the situation deteriorates markedly.
Looking at sectors, Oxford Economics sees a small decline for counterbalanced trucks in 2008. On the basis of its own statistics, BITA would expect this to see a fall in electric powered truck sales, with internal combustion engine powered truck sales remaining fairly static.
In warehouse products, the forecast is for a decline of around 4% in 2008, but then a rise of similar percentages in the next two years. BITA’s insight is that the market for rider warehouse products, of which 60% are reach trucks, has fallen by over 12% from a peak mid 2005, whilst over a similar period pedestrian warehouse trucks, of which 60% are transporters, have fallen by only 5%.
Pedestrian products make up 60% of the warehouse sector and therefore have a far greater influence on market trends than rider products.
And finally…
To read the full report, I’m afraid, you need to be a member of BITA.
However, it is now easier than ever to become a member of BITA, following our announcement of a brand-new website at our 2008 AGM. The new site, developed by our communications consultancy Razor, offers an online membership application form and new account administration facilities for existing members. Plus, for the first time, it facilitates online payments for our acclaimed safety booklets. And of course it delivers a whole host of additional information about BITA’s activities and membership benefits.
You may visit our new site at www.bita.org.uk… where you can also read details of the new BITA President and Management Board elected at the AGM!
BITA
Tel: 01344 623800
Email: info@bita.org.uk
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